Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle may unfold in three phases: a fast phase in Q4 2025, a slow phase in the first half of 2026, and a subsequent acceleration in cuts later in 2026 [1] Summary by Sections - Phase 1: Fast Cuts (Q4 2025) - The initial phase is expected to involve rapid rate cuts, potentially 3-4 consecutive reductions [1] - Phase 2: Slower Cuts (First Half of 2026) - In the second phase, the pace of cuts is anticipated to slow down as inflation continues to rise, prompting the Fed to balance growth and inflation risks [1] - Phase 3: Accelerated Cuts (Second Half of 2026) - The final phase may see a renewed acceleration in rate cuts, especially with the potential appointment of a more dovish Fed chair after Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1] - Market Implications - The overall expectation is for a trend towards monetary easing over the next year, which is likely to favor various asset classes including equities, bonds, and commodities, while also contributing to a depreciation of the US dollar [1]
中金：美联储降息节奏可能在“快-慢-快”之间切换
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-10 00:21