Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-10 00:45Core Viewpoint - The coking coal sector is experiencing inventory reduction during the National Day holiday, with supply constraints and potential price support due to a tight supply-demand balance [1] Supply Side - During the holiday, some mines underwent maintenance, and three major ports for Mongolian coal were closed for seven days, leading to a rapid decrease in port inventory [1] - Post-holiday, an acceleration in customs clearance is expected, while sea freight coal arrivals have decreased from high levels, resulting in a reduction in supply compared to the previous period [1] Market Performance - According to Zheshang Securities, the import volume of Mongolian coal rebounded in Q3, and supply chain trade profits have also recovered alongside price rebounds [1] - Citic Securities reports that the average net profit of tracked coal listed companies is expected to grow by approximately 18% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year decline of about 27% for the first three quarters [1] Price Outlook - The iron and steel production remains high in the context of a "de-involution" environment, and if the coal industry continues to enforce production checks, it may maintain a tight balance in the coking coal supply-demand structure, supporting coking coal prices [1] - The overall supply-demand balance in the industry is expected to remain stable in Q4, with potential short-term supply gaps during peak seasons, and if the de-involution policies are enforced more rigorously, coal prices may exceed expectations [1] Sector Improvement - The current policies, coal prices, and performance expectations for the sector are improving, and there is potential for sustained excess returns as market styles rotate or policies catalyze [1] Related Companies - The coal sector includes companies such as China Shenhua (01088), China Coal Energy (01898), Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171), Yida Zong (01733), Yancoal Australia (03668), and China Qinfa (00866) [2]