上海楼市“冰火两重天”：新房促销揽客成效初显 二手房成交同比跌超六成

Core Insights - The real estate market in Shanghai experienced a mixed performance during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with new housing projects seeing increased visitor numbers and sales, while the second-hand housing market remained sluggish [2][9][12]. New Housing Market - During the holiday period from October 1 to October 8, several new housing projects launched promotional activities, leading to a notable increase in customer visits and sales [4][12]. - Poly Developments reported over 4,000 customer visits and a sales volume of 1.28 billion yuan across 11 projects during the holiday [4]. - The "Zhaoshang Shidai Chaopai" project successfully sold 16 units despite a lower than usual visitor count, averaging over 40 groups of customers daily [4][5]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai saw a significant decline, with only 780 transactions recorded during the holiday, a drop of over 63% compared to the same period in 2024 [9][10]. - The average daily transaction volume was only 111 units, indicating a continued cautious sentiment among buyers [9][10]. - Year-to-date data shows that the second-hand housing market remains resilient, with a total of 191,000 transactions from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [9][12]. Market Trends and Outlook - The new housing market is expected to maintain a cautious optimism for the fourth quarter, driven by the recent policy changes and an increase in new project supply [12][14]. - The "Hushi Liu Tiao" policy introduced in August has positively impacted the market, leading to a significant increase in new housing transactions in September [12][14]. - Analysts suggest that while the second-hand market is currently weak, the overall market is in a phase of stabilization, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the near future [14][15].