贵金属大幅上涨，分析人士：短期需警惕调整风险

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in domestic gold and silver futures prices following the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays is attributed to the surge in international gold and silver prices during the holiday period, driven by increased market risk appetite due to the U.S. government shutdown [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - COMEX gold futures prices surpassed $4000 per ounce on October 7, primarily due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has become the fourth longest in history [1]. - The prolonged shutdown may impact the payment of salaries for military and federal employees, and the delay in the release of key economic data, such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, could affect data quality [1]. - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in gold prices may have already priced in much of the market's risk appetite, and any resolution to the government shutdown could lead to price volatility [3]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The rise in silver prices is influenced by multiple factors, including increased demand for safe-haven assets, expectations of preemptive interest rate cuts, and the entry of arbitrage funds [2]. - The recent turmoil in the French government and uncertainties surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve have heightened market risk aversion, further supporting silver prices [2]. - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves, indicating a continued trend of accumulation, which may enhance the purchasing power of gold buyers [2]. Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term caution is advised for gold bulls, as indicators suggest overbought conditions, and a rebound in the U.S. dollar could lead to a decline in gold prices [3]. - Long-term trends for gold prices remain positive, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of October, which could provide upward momentum for gold [3]. - For silver, the medium to long-term price center is expected to continue rising, particularly as the end of the rate-cutting cycle may lead to historically low real interest rates, significantly benefiting silver prices [3].