Core Insights - The introduction of lithium carbonate futures and options has provided effective hedging tools for the lithium battery new energy industry to manage price volatility and achieve high-quality development [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Lithium carbonate has been in a supply surplus cycle over the past two years, with prices dropping from over 200,000 yuan per ton at launch to below 100,000 yuan per ton [1] - In 2025, lithium carbonate prices are expected to initially decline due to tariff impacts and supply surplus, dropping from around 80,000 yuan to below 60,000 yuan, before rebounding due to unexpected demand and supply uncertainties [1] - The lithium battery industry has shown strong demand, with lithium carbonate production reaching record monthly highs of 81,530 tons, 85,240 tons, and 87,260 tons from July to September [2] - The production of lithium iron phosphate is projected to reach 2.1782 million tons from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 72% [2] Inventory Trends - As of late September, total lithium carbonate inventory was 136,825 tons, a decrease of 706 tons, marking the seventh consecutive week of decline [3] - Inventory is shifting from lithium salt enterprises to downstream sectors, with downstream inventories reaching new highs [3] Seasonal Demand Insights - The demand for lithium carbonate in the fourth quarter is expected to experience a peak followed by a decline, with retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 1.039 million units in September, a year-on-year increase of 9% [4] - Policies supporting the purchase of new energy vehicles are set to continue, with tax exemptions and reductions planned for 2024-2027, which may influence demand dynamics [4] Market Outlook - Despite strong supply and demand in the lithium battery industry, the tension in the lithium carbonate supply chain is expected to ease in the fourth quarter, leading to narrower price fluctuations [5]
库存结构转变 碳酸锂波幅有望收窄
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-10-10 01:16