Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-10 01:41Core Viewpoint - The coal sector's Q3 performance is expected to improve due to a rebound in coal prices, with further increases anticipated in Q4 during peak season, potentially exceeding expectations if supply reduction policies are enforced more rigorously [1] Group 1: Q3 Performance Analysis - In Q3, various coal prices showed a year-on-year decline, but the rate of decline for thermal coal and metallurgical coal has narrowed; on a quarter-on-quarter basis, thermal coal market prices increased by nearly 6%, while metallurgical coal prices rose by approximately 10% [1] - The average price of thermal coal under long-term contracts decreased by about 0.74% quarter-on-quarter, falling below market prices, indicating a return to normalcy [1] - Sample listed companies in the coal sector saw a significant quarter-on-quarter net profit increase of approximately 18% in Q3, with thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite companies experiencing quarter-on-quarter growth rates of 17%, 32%, and 43% respectively [2] Group 2: Q4 Outlook - The supply side is expected to remain constrained due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, leading to a balanced supply-demand scenario in Q4; however, a potential supply gap may arise in December as winter demand increases [3] - The average price of port thermal coal is projected to rise by about 7% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, while coking coal prices are expected to fluctuate with a decline of 3-5% [3] - The overall profitability of coal companies is anticipated to continue improving in Q4, contingent on the enforcement of supply reduction policies [3]