Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-10 02:04Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the pig farming industry, highlighting both offensive and defensive investment opportunities, with a potential downward trend in pig prices expected in 2025 due to breeding sow efficiency and market conditions [1] - The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, with food prices down 4.3%, and pork prices specifically down 16.1% year-on-year [1] - The agricultural trade deficit in August was $10.647 billion, a slight decrease of 2.54% year-on-year, with imports at $18.748 billion and exports at $8.102 billion [1] Group 2 - The agricultural index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index from early September to September 26, with a decline of 1.36% while the CSI 300 rose by 1.19% [2] - Within the agricultural sectors, feed saw a relative increase of 0.86%, while agricultural product processing and animal health sectors declined by 5.11% and 3.78%, respectively [2] Group 3 - As of August, the breeding sow inventory decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with the pig price hitting a new low of 13.71 yuan/kg on September 17, down 16% from the end of 2024 [3] - The overall industry losses may lead to capacity reduction, with breeding profits for self-bred and purchased piglets at -74 yuan/head and -237 yuan/head, respectively [3] - The report anticipates a year-on-year decline in average pig prices for 2025, influenced by the optimization of costs by leading pig companies [3] Group 4 - In August, the export value of pet food was 834 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.5%, while the export volume increased by 3.53% to 29,500 tons [4] - The cumulative export value from January to August was 6.764 billion yuan, down 2.35% year-on-year, with an export volume of 230,400 tons, reflecting a 6.23% increase [4]