3 6 Ke·2025-10-10 02:02Market Overview - The US stock market experienced increased volatility due to a lack of key economic data, with investors expressing concerns over potential bubble risks in previously high-performing tech stocks and cyclical assets, leading to significant profit-taking pressure [1] - Despite a late-session optimistic forecast regarding Microsoft’s data center demand, major indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow closed lower [1] - There is a noticeable sector rotation, with investors selling off economically sensitive sectors and shifting towards defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples, reflecting a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty [1] Nvidia Developments - Nvidia continued its upward trend, reaching both intraday and closing historical highs, with a market capitalization nearing $4.7 trillion [3] - The US Department of Commerce has granted Nvidia an export license to sell chips worth billions to the United Arab Emirates, in line with a bilateral AI agreement established in May [3] Oracle's Performance - Oracle shares rose by 3.06%, driven by positive analyst ratings, with TD Cowen designating it as a "Top Pick" and Baird initiating coverage with an "Outperform" rating, highlighting strong growth potential in its AI business [4] Microsoft’s Supply Challenges - Microsoft predicts that the computing power shortage crisis will persist until 2026, with significant physical space and server shortages in key US data center regions, directly impacting new subscriptions for Azure cloud services [5] - The current supply constraints are more prolonged than previously indicated, with Azure expected to generate over $75 billion in revenue for FY2025, making the supply-demand imbalance particularly concerning [5][8] Dual Demand Impact - The capacity crisis is driven by two core demands: strong computational needs from AI and traditional cloud infrastructure, with Microsoft’s CTO noting that the demand for AI workloads has outpaced capacity expansion efforts [8] - Traditional workloads, including those from Microsoft’s Office suite and clients like OpenAI, are also contributing to the demand for computing resources [8] Client Strategies - Clients facing Azure capacity limitations are adopting pragmatic strategies, such as shifting to other cloud providers like AWS and Google Cloud, or utilizing multiple Azure regions while awaiting additional capacity [9] Microsoft’s Remedial Actions - Microsoft is actively seeking to balance supply and demand, with a spokesperson indicating that most Azure services still have available capacity for existing customers [10] - The company is guiding clients to other regions when preferred facilities are full, although this may increase system complexity and data transfer delays [11] Infrastructure Expansion and Supply Chain Issues - Microsoft has initiated a historic data center construction surge, adding over 2 gigawatts of capacity in the past year, yet faces significant delays due to supply chain bottlenecks affecting critical components [12] - The construction timeline for data centers can extend for years, complicating rapid expansion efforts amid ongoing global supply chain challenges [12]