美联储“缄默期”前激烈博弈！理事巴尔呼吁对降息保持谨慎

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr expresses caution regarding further policy adjustments due to ongoing inflation concerns, indicating skepticism towards the market's expectation of rate cuts in 2025 [2][4]. Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Barr emphasizes worries about persistent inflation, suggesting that the Fed cannot be complacent in achieving its 2% inflation target, with median forecasts indicating a return to target levels may not occur until the end of 2027 [2][4]. - He acknowledges the current economic uncertainty and believes the Fed should not rush to adjust policies, advocating for a careful assessment of data and risk balance [4]. Group 2: Employment Market Insights - While acknowledging signs of weakness in the job market, Barr notes that the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.3% as of August, which typically indicates a healthy labor market [3]. - Other Fed officials, like San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, support the recent rate cut, citing labor market softness and lower inflation concerns as justifications for potential further cuts [5]. Group 3: Policy Divergence Among Fed Officials - Market expectations suggest an 80% probability of two more rate cuts this year, but Barr's comments highlight internal dissent within the Fed regarding this path [4]. - Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid expresses a hawkish stance, questioning the need for further rate cuts, while other officials advocate for continued easing [5]. Group 4: Impact of Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown complicates matters, delaying the release of the September non-farm payroll report and potentially affecting the publication of inflation data [6]. - The next Fed meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, with limited time for officials to express their views on monetary policy before the "quiet period" begins [6].