突然之间，“空美元”成了“痛苦交易”

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has experienced a rebound against major currencies, challenging the previously dominant short positions held by hedge funds, despite ongoing government shutdowns [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The forex market's daily trading volume reached $9.6 trillion, with shorting the dollar being a leading strategy this year, but this is now facing setbacks as the dollar rises to a two-month high against most currencies [1]. - Hedge funds are increasing their options positions, betting on a continued dollar rebound through the end of the year, influenced by overseas market movements and cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding further rate cuts [1][2]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has risen approximately 2% since mid-year, following a steep decline earlier, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the dollar [2]. Group 2: Political and Economic Influences - Political instability in Japan and France has renewed demand for the dollar as a safe haven, with the yen and euro facing downward pressure due to these developments [3]. - The potential rise of a pro-inflation Japanese prime minister and ongoing crises in the French government are contributing to the dollar's strength against these currencies [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Positioning - There is a growing bullish sentiment in the options market, with hedge funds increasing their long positions on the dollar against most G10 currencies, indicating expectations of continued strength [5]. - The demand for bullish structures in the options market has surpassed that for bearish structures, reaching the highest level of optimism since April [5]. - Despite a significant reduction in short positions since mid-year, there remains considerable pain potential for those holding short positions if the dollar continues to appreciate [5].