加息押注消退，日元势创今年最大单周跌幅

Group 1 - The Japanese yen is experiencing its worst week in a year, with a nearly 4% decline this week, trading around 153 against the US dollar, the lowest level since mid-February [1][3] - The sharp decline in the yen is primarily due to market concerns over the potential election of a dovish figure, Sanae Takaichi, as Japan's first female Prime Minister, which may reduce the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3][4] - Market sentiment regarding Japan's monetary policy has turned pessimistic, with traders adjusting their expectations significantly, now estimating a 45% chance of a rate hike in December [4] Group 2 - Investors believe that Takaichi's fiscal policy stance may pose political resistance to future interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan, leading to a shift in market expectations [4] - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in March next year, indicating that hopes for tightening monetary policy in the short term have been pushed further into the future [4] - Expectations for intervention in the foreign exchange market by Japanese authorities are also diminishing, as recent comments from Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki suggest that immediate intervention is unlikely, potentially encouraging further selling of the yen [4]