香港第一金：黄金昨日触底3944后反弹，是回调结束还是风暴前的平静？

Core Viewpoint - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by temporary factors and technical overbought conditions, but long-term bullish factors remain solid [2] Group 1: Short-term Factors - Gold prices are supported by the high probability (95%) of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October and geopolitical risks related to a potential U.S. government shutdown [2] - Technical consolidation is needed, indicating a potentially volatile trading environment [2] Group 2: Long-term Trends - Global central bank gold purchases reached nearly 150 tons in September, marking the highest monthly total of the year, contributing to a strong long-term demand for gold [2] - The ongoing de-dollarization process and future Federal Reserve rate cut expectations are expected to create a solid bottom for gold prices [2] - Under neutral assumptions, models predict that gold prices could challenge $4,500 per ounce in the first quarter of next year [2] Group 3: Key Upcoming Events - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 29 is a critical event, with a high expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut [3] - Monitoring the developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown is essential for understanding potential market impacts [4] - Continued attention to geopolitical risks, particularly in Venezuela and the Middle East, is necessary [5]