沪镍主力合约2511：收涨2.39%，预计低位震荡

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai nickel futures market experienced a significant increase on October 9, 2025, driven by multiple factors including new policies in China and expectations for economic growth [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main nickel contract opened at 121,300 CNY/ton and closed at 124,480 CNY/ton, reflecting a change of 2.39% from the previous close [1] - The trading volume for the day was 130,864 lots, with an open interest of 86,038 lots [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - New policies in tourism and infrastructure were introduced during the National Day holiday, enhancing the long-term demand outlook for key metals due to the focus on new energy and high-end manufacturing [1] - The market is optimistic about additional "stabilization growth" policies in the fourth quarter, which has increased risk appetite in the base metals sector [1] - Following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, there is growing speculation about further easing in the upcoming October meeting, contributing to a slight decline in the dollar index and a stronger RMB, which reduces import costs for nickel [1] Group 3: Nickel Supply and Demand - The nickel ore market is currently stable, with the Philippines' Surigao mines entering the rainy season, maintaining firm pricing [1] - Earthquakes in the Mindanao region have not impacted mining operations, but downstream steel mills are cautious due to losses, leading to a conservative purchasing approach [1] - Indonesian nickel ore supply remains ample, with expectations of price increases in domestic trade benchmarks within October, while new regulations from the Indonesian government raise concerns about supply stability beyond 2026 [1] Group 4: Current Pricing and Inventory - The sales price of nickel in the Shanghai market by Jinchuan Group is 125,100 CNY/ton, an increase of 1,700 CNY/ton from the previous price [1] - The previous warehouse receipt volume for Shanghai nickel was 24,775 tons, while LME nickel inventory stood at 236,892 tons [1] Group 5: Strategic Outlook - The macroeconomic impact on nickel prices is limited, with prices expected to fluctuate at low levels due to high inventory and oversupply conditions [1] - The strategy suggests focusing on range trading, with no current recommendations for cross-period, cross-commodity, or options trading [1]