国庆楼市“银十”分化开局，一线城市热门新房抢手，政策预期仍在升温

Core Insights - The real estate market in key cities remains active during the "Golden October" holiday, with significant increases in transaction volumes and viewings, particularly in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [2][3][4] - Despite the positive performance in core cities, the overall national real estate market is still undergoing adjustments, with a notable divergence between first/second-tier cities and third/fourth-tier cities [11][12] Market Performance - During the holiday, Beijing's new home daily transaction volume increased by 30.8% year-on-year, while Shanghai's volume rose by 72% and Shenzhen's by 40% to 50% compared to regular days [4][11] - In Chongqing, the Longfor Group's project achieved a remarkable sales figure of 6.2 billion yuan during the holiday, marking a 256% increase compared to September [4] - The average daily transaction volume for new homes in 30 major cities during the holiday was 671 units, remaining flat compared to the same period in 2024, indicating weaker performance in third and fourth-tier cities [11][12] Policy and Financial Support - Recent policy adjustments since August have lowered purchasing thresholds, stimulating demand in core cities, with Beijing and Shanghai easing restrictions on home purchases [9][14] - Various cities have introduced support measures, such as increasing housing provident fund loan limits and providing interest subsidies for first-time homebuyers [14][16] - The expectation of further financial policy support, including potential reductions in the 5-year LPR, could lower home purchasing costs [18] Sales Strategies and Promotions - Real estate companies are employing diverse marketing strategies, including special pricing and promotional offers, to attract buyers during the holiday [5][7][8] - In Shenzhen, significant discounts and promotional activities, such as "0 down payment" offers, have been introduced to boost sales [7][8] - The trend of "price for volume" strategies is evident, particularly in second-tier cities, where quality projects are seeing increased buyer interest [12][13] Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue showing a divided performance, with core cities likely to see sustained demand due to new supply entering the market [12][13] - The ongoing adjustments in policies and financial tools are anticipated to further stimulate the market, particularly in first-tier cities [18]