不顾中国，越南跟美国签了，但转头发现：特朗普又对中国连退两步

Core Insights - The trade relationship between the US and Vietnam has become increasingly complicated, with Vietnam attempting to benefit from US tariffs on China but ultimately facing negative consequences [1][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - A trade agreement was reached on July 2, 2025, imposing a 20% tariff on US exports to Vietnam while exempting Vietnamese exports to the US from tariffs [3]. - Vietnam will impose a 40% tariff on goods suspected of being transshipped from China to the US, significantly impacting its export economy [3][4]. - Prior to the agreement, Vietnam had a trade surplus of over $40 billion with the US, with approximately 30% of this surplus derived from transshipped Chinese goods [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Impact on Vietnam - The agreement is expected to severely disrupt Vietnam's supply chains, forcing a reevaluation of logistics and increasing operational costs for local businesses [4][6]. - Vietnamese manufacturers are experiencing a decline in orders as the new tariffs lead to a reduction in the flow of Chinese components and raw materials [6][9]. - Following the agreement, Vietnam's border trade with the US has decreased by 15%, and many factories are operating at only 80% capacity [9][11]. Group 3: US-China Relations and Strategic Shifts - Shortly after the agreement, the US made concessions to China by lifting restrictions on ethane exports and semiconductor design software, indicating a shift in US policy [6][7]. - The concessions suggest that the US is reassessing its trade strategies, which may undermine Vietnam's position as a middleman in US-China trade [7][9]. - The evolving dynamics highlight Vietnam's loss of strategic leverage, as its reliance on transshipment trade is diminishing [9][11]. Group 4: Regional Comparisons - Other countries like Japan, South Korea, and India are adopting more cautious approaches to US trade policies, focusing on maintaining their own economic interests [11]. - The future of Vietnam's economy may depend on its ability to repair relations with China amidst the shifting landscape of US-China trade relations [11].