世贸组织预计关税冲击将在2026年显现

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) report indicates that the impact of tariff increases on the global economy will become evident by 2026 [1] - Strong trade performance in the first half of 2023 led to an upward revision of the 2025 global goods trade growth forecast from -0.2% to 2.4% [1] - However, the WTO has downgraded the 2026 global trade growth forecast from 2.5% to 0.5% [1] Trade Growth Projections - Global goods trade is expected to grow by 5.5% year-on-year in Q1 2023 and 4.3% in Q2 2023, resulting in a 4.9% growth for the first half of the year [1] - The North American region is projected to see declines in goods trade imports and exports in 2025 by 4.9% and 3.1%, respectively, and further declines in 2026 by 5.8% and 1.0% [1] - The contribution of North America to global trade in 2025 and 2026 is expected to be negative, while Asia is anticipated to contribute the most to global trade growth [1]