Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that domestic insurance stocks have underperformed since the end of July, with average declines of 2% in H-shares and 6% in A-shares, while the Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 Index rose by 8% and 14% respectively. This is attributed to high valuation levels following a rebound in early April and a weak profit growth outlook due to high base effects in the second half of 2024 [1] Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes that the risk-reward profile for domestic insurance stocks is improving ahead of the upcoming third-quarter earnings, with expectations that stock investment returns may lead to better-than-expected profits for the third quarter [1] - The new business value for next year is anticipated to achieve double-digit growth, and the profit margin for contract services is expected to reach a growth inflection point [1] Group 2 - Among domestic insurance stocks, China Life is expected to benefit the most from market and yield changes in the third quarter, followed by China Pacific Insurance. New China Life is projected to show the strongest profit growth, although its book value and solvency ratio may lag behind peers [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 profit forecast for domestic insurance stocks by 2% to 20%, with the largest upward adjustments for China Life and New China Life at 20% and 19% respectively [1] - The rating for China Pacific Insurance has been upgraded from "Neutral" to "Buy," while the rating for China Taiping has been upgraded from "Sell" to "Neutral" [1]
高盛：内险股风险回报正在改善 第三季盈利或好过预期
Ge Long Hui·2025-10-10 06:03