美联储被“政治化”不可避免

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments regarding the Federal Reserve, including the Senate approval of Stephen Milan and the court's rejection of Trump's request to remove Governor Cook, highlight the ongoing political struggle over monetary policy in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Developments - Stephen Milan's appointment as a Federal Reserve Governor allows him to participate in upcoming monetary policy meetings, indicating Trump's efforts to influence the Fed are met with mixed results [1] - The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected Trump's attempt to remove Governor Cook, allowing him to remain until a final decision is made by the Supreme Court [1] Group 2: Trump's Economic Policy and Interest Rates - Trump is pushing for interest rate cuts to weaken the dollar, reduce corporate financing costs, and alleviate government debt burdens, viewing these cuts as essential for implementing his economic policies [2][3] - The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cuts due to concerns over inflation, despite strong consumer demand and limited signs of recession [2] Group 3: Employment and Inflation Data - Recent adjustments to employment data show a downward revision of 911,000 jobs, indicating that previous employment strength may have been overstated [3] - The August non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, raising concerns about the labor market [3] Group 4: Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September are high, with a 96.1% probability, while a 50 basis point cut is seen as unlikely [4] - The consensus among Federal Reserve members is leaning towards a cautious approach to rate cuts, with only new member Milan advocating for a more aggressive reduction [4] Group 5: Future Rate Cut Projections - Market forecasts suggest a likelihood of 50, 75, and 100 basis point cuts by 2025 at 24.1%, 71.6%, and 2.9% respectively, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [5] - Despite some signs of slowing employment, consumer spending remains robust, reflecting the resilience of the U.S. economy [5] Group 6: Inflation Concerns - Current inflation data shows the CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, with core CPI also at 3.1%, indicating that inflation concerns persist despite expectations of rate cuts [6] - The yield curve reflects market skepticism about the effectiveness of rate cuts in fully stimulating economic activity, with short-term rates falling while long-term rates remain high [6] Group 7: Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - Trump's influence over the Federal Reserve is expected to increase as he appoints new members aligned with his economic policies, potentially leading to more aggressive rate cuts [7] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is increasingly challenged by political pressures, raising concerns about the future of its monetary policy decisions [7]