Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-10 06:32Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388) will report record high revenues and net profits for Q3 this year, with year-on-year growth of 43% and 53%, reaching HKD 7.7 billion and HKD 4.8 billion respectively, exceeding market expectations by 8% and 11% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 revenue and net profit are expected to reach HKD 7.7 billion and HKD 4.8 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 43% and 53% [1] - UBS estimates that Q3 net investment income will be HKD 933 million, reflecting a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline of 23% and 40% respectively, primarily due to weaker Hong Kong interbank offered rates and potential foreign exchange losses from a depreciating USD [1] Group 2: Market Activity - The average daily trading volume for Q3 is projected to reach a new high of HKD 286 billion, with southbound capital contributing approximately 27%, an increase from 23% and 24% in Q1 and Q2 respectively [1] - It is estimated that the turnover rate of southbound capital is more than twice that of local and foreign investors since 2020, indicating a structural improvement in overall turnover rates [1] Group 3: Future Projections - UBS has raised its average daily trading volume forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 9% to 16% and adjusted its earnings per share estimates upward by 7% to 12% [1] - The target price for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited has been increased from HKD 464 to HKD 485, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]