“闪崩”之后，日元后续怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - Political uncertainty in Japan is becoming a focal point for the market, with implications for the yen's performance and potential shifts in the stock market and bond yields [3][6]. Group 1: Political Landscape - The Democratic Party has stated it will not join the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, leading to expectations that the ruling coalition may dissolve [3][6]. - If the LDP governs alone, it may face a weakened legislative position, increasing political uncertainty [6][11]. Group 2: Currency and Market Implications - Nomura Securities indicates that the outcome of the ruling coalition will significantly impact the yen, with a potential reversal of "high city trading" if the LDP governs alone, leading to a stock market decline and further yen depreciation [3][11]. - Citigroup forecasts that the USD/JPY exchange rate may rise to the 154-155 range in the short term, while maintaining a long-term view of a large triangular top formation since last summer [3][12]. Group 3: Economic Policy Insights - Citigroup emphasizes that the new economic policy under Prime Minister Kishi is unlikely to replicate Abenomics due to changes in the internal political landscape and the current economic environment [10]. - The market may find support for the yen if the LDP and Komeito alliance is maintained or if a less dovish finance minister is appointed, alleviating concerns over Japanese government bond supply and demand [11].