Roblox(US:RBLX) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-10 07:35Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo anticipates Roblox's Q3 bookings to surge by 60% to $1.805 billion, exceeding previous guidance of 40%-45% growth, and has raised the target price to $155 [1][2] Group 1: Q3 Performance Expectations - Q3 bookings are expected to reach $1.805 billion, reflecting a 60% year-over-year increase, significantly above the guidance [1] - Concurrent user count (CCU) is estimated to have more than doubled from the previous quarter, increasing by 130%, although bookings per daily user are projected to decline by 30% year-over-year [1] - The strong performance is not limited to the popular game "Grow A Garden," with other bookings expected to grow by 43% [1] Group 2: Q4 Guidance and Projections - Q4 bookings are projected to be between $1.76 billion and $1.785 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 29%-31% [2] - Despite a significant slowdown since September, Wells Fargo estimates a minimum of 40% growth in bookings [2] - Q4 advertising revenue is expected to reach $100 million for the first time, although advertising expectations have been adjusted downward due to a more gradual promotional plan [2] Group 3: EBITDA and Financial Metrics - Q3 EBITDA is anticipated to be $465 million, surpassing the expected range of $350 million to $380 million and market expectations of $390 million [2] - The increase in DevEx payments is expected to add $18 million to EBITDA in the first full quarter of implementation [3] - Q4 EBITDA guidance is set between $450 million and $480 million, with market expectations leaning towards the upper end of this range [3] Group 4: Long-term Forecasts - Wells Fargo has raised its 2025 forecasts, expecting bookings, EBITDA, and free cash flow to grow by 3%, 7%, and 8% respectively [3] - For 2026, bookings are projected to grow by 1%, while EBITDA and free cash flow are expected to decline by 1% due to the impact of the announced DevEx activities [3] - The target price has been adjusted from $153 to $155, maintaining a 40x EBITDA multiple for 2027 [3]