供应危机重塑市场格局 瑞银看好铜价中长期前景：上涨潜力或加速兑现

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have been rising since early April, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in the past six months, currently trading at $10,727.50 per ton on LME. UBS forecasts further upward potential for copper prices driven by supply-side factors, predicting a range of $10,000 to $11,500 per ton in the coming quarters [1][4]. Supply Factors - UBS highlights multiple supply disruptions, notably Freeport-McMoRan's temporary halt of operations at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to a landslide, which is expected to significantly impact production until 2027. The company has lowered its 2026 production guidance for Grasberg by 35%, equating to a reduction of approximately 270,000 tons of copper [4]. - Other major copper mines have also faced challenges, such as the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which revised its 2025 production guidance down from 520,000-580,000 tons to 370,000-420,000 tons due to seismic events. Additionally, the El Teniente mine in Chile has reduced its output by 300,000 tons, approximately 11% lower than previous expectations [4]. - Current spot refining and smelting charges (TCRC) remain at historical lows, coupled with expectations of an impending Federal Reserve rate cut and a weaker dollar, contributing to copper prices exceeding $10,600 per ton. UBS anticipates supply growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 [4]. Demand Factors - China continues to be the primary driver of global copper demand, with significant contributions from the electric vehicle, renewable energy, and home appliance sectors. Refined copper production and copper concentrate imports from China have increased this year, while traditional demand from Europe and the U.S. remains weak [5]. - UBS maintains its demand forecasts, projecting refined copper demand growth of 2.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, leading to supply deficits of 53,000 tons and 87,000 tons in those respective years [5]. Investment Perspective - UBS favors a volatility selling strategy, particularly selling downside risk in copper prices to enhance returns, which is seen as attractive in the short term amid anticipated macroeconomic headwinds. However, the firm remains bullish on copper prices in the long term, preferring to hold long positions directly [6].