波士顿联储：通胀预期“脱锚”风险重现，类似1970年代末格局

Core Insights - The Boston Federal Reserve's research report indicates that the sharp rise in U.S. household inflation expectations poses a greater risk to the Federal Reserve's ability to achieve its 2% inflation target compared to previous instances [1] - Unlike during the pandemic, the current rise in inflation expectations is not primarily driven by food and energy prices, significantly increasing the likelihood of sustained inflation expectations above policy targets [1] Group 1 - The report, authored by Boston Fed researchers Philippe Andrade and Michael Wicklein, analyzes data from the University of Michigan's consumer survey [1] - Current inflation expectations are more similar to the situation in the late 1970s, where inflation rates surged but the correlation between expected and actual price changes was weak, leading the Fed to initiate aggressive rate hikes to restore credibility [1] - The report highlights that the inflation expectation surge in the early 1970s and during the pandemic was largely explained by sharp increases in energy and food prices, but the current rise in expectations is not closely tied to price increases [1] Group 2 - Researchers warn that the inability to explain the rise in expectations through short-term price fluctuations suggests a significant increase in the risk of inflation expectations becoming "unanchored," similar to the late 1970s [1] - However, the report emphasizes that, at present, these risks remain within a controllable range [1]