中金：10月仍是中美流动性共振窗口期 AH股性价比配置更好

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts in September, entering a new phase of dollar easing, prioritizing "stabilizing growth" over "controlling inflation" due to rising unemployment risks and political pressure from Trump, with expectations of 3-4 consecutive rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Phases - The Fed's rate cut cycle is expected to transition through three phases: a fast pace in 2025 Q4, a slowdown in 2026 H1, and a renewed acceleration in 2026 H2 [2][3]. - The first phase will see rapid cuts due to low inflation levels and urgent employment risks, while the second phase will involve a balance between growth and inflation risks, potentially halting balance sheet reductions [2]. - The third phase anticipates a more dovish Fed chair under Trump's administration, leading to accelerated rate cuts as inflationary pressures from tariffs diminish [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Indicators - The U.S. economy is currently trending towards stagflation or recession, with stagflation being more likely, but a future recovery is expected due to the Fed's easing policies [4]. - Historical analysis shows that it typically takes an average of 12 months from the start of a rate cut cycle to reach a growth upturn, suggesting that a turning point may be near [4][5]. - A database of 16 core economic indicators has been developed to track turning points, with consumer and employment data being critical for predicting economic recovery [5][6]. Group 3: Market Implications - October is projected to be a liquidity resonance window, favoring a loose trading environment for various asset classes, including stocks and gold [6][7]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to perform well, with a recommendation to overweight A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the tech sector [8]. - The U.S. stock market may underperform relative to non-U.S. markets during the dollar down cycle, with a cautionary note on the potential for increased volatility in the stock market [8][9]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommendation is to maintain a high risk appetite in October, with a focus on Chinese equities and a balanced allocation to U.S. bonds and stocks [7][10]. - Investors are advised to monitor policy changes closely in October and November, adjusting asset allocations as necessary based on liquidity conditions [10].