机构出现对黄金的分歧

Group 1 - French Foreign Trade Bank predicts that international gold prices may face downward risks in the next two to three months, with leveraged investors needing to close positions and take partial profits, potentially leading to a 5% to 10% drop in gold prices within days [1] - According to TD Securities, lower price levels present a buying opportunity, with an upward trend in international gold prices expected to remain unchanged in the first half of 2026, potentially reaching an average price of over $4,400 per ounce in the first six months of next year [1] - The average price for the entire year is projected to be around $4,250 per ounce [1] Group 2 - On the domestic market, Shanghai gold fell by 1.25%, closing at 901.56 yuan per gram [3] - GF Futures outlook for the fourth quarter indicates that despite the resilience of the U.S. economy, the dual characteristics of "expectation strengthening - independence undermined" in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path are pressuring the U.S. dollar index [4] - The ongoing impact of the U.S. government shutdown and the fiscal monetary policy turmoil in developed countries like Europe and Japan is expected to reshape the asset pricing system, favoring commodities with strong financial attributes, which may lead to a bull market similar to the 1970s [4]