【UNforex财经事件】黄金失守4000美元关口！美联储降息预期与避险情绪博弈加剧

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction continues to dominate global markets, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and 82% in December according to CME FedWatch [1] - Recent meeting minutes indicate that most officials acknowledge inflation risks but agree on a moderate policy easing within the year to address economic slowdown and fiscal uncertainty [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its second week, delaying the release of economic data and increasing market reliance on central bank statements and market indicators [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Gold Prices - A temporary easing of safe-haven demand occurred following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, leading to some funds exiting the gold market [1] - However, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has reignited global risk aversion, causing fluctuations in gold prices as investors switch between different risk events [1] - Geopolitical uncertainty and changes in global liquidity remain significant variables supporting gold prices [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices have retreated from a historical high of $4059, currently hovering around $3950, with the RSI indicator indicating sustained buying momentum despite moving out of the overbought zone [2] - If gold can maintain above $3960, it will continue a high-level consolidation; a drop below $3900 could trigger a new round of corrections, with the next support level at $3819 [2] - A rebound above $4035 and a breakthrough of the $4060 resistance zone could lead to a target range of $4100 [2] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The dollar is experiencing a short-term pullback but remains strong in the medium term, with limited rebound potential for non-dollar currencies [4] - Oil prices are driven by OPEC+ production policies and inventory data, with short-term volatility risks increasing [5] - Gold prices are temporarily under pressure due to profit-taking and a decrease in safe-haven demand, but the medium-term bullish outlook remains intact, influenced by Federal Reserve policy signals and global political risks [5]