专家再预测房价走势：一线止跌，三四线"躺平"，两个建议得当回事

Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery in first-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities remain stagnant [2][5][8] - New housing policies in major cities are aimed at stabilizing prices and encouraging demand, contrasting with aggressive promotional tactics in lower-tier cities [7][10] - The disparity in housing demand is largely driven by population flow and economic opportunities, with first-tier cities attracting more residents due to better job prospects and resources [4][8][12] Market Trends - In August, the number of cities with rising new home prices increased from 6 to 9, with Shanghai seeing a 0.4% increase and a significant surge in transaction volume in the same period [2][4] - First-tier cities are experiencing a quicker absorption of housing inventory, with a 6 to 9-month turnover, compared to 18 months or more in third and fourth-tier cities [4][8] - The overall inventory of commercial housing stands at 680 million square meters, with 70% located in lower-tier cities, indicating a significant oversupply issue [4] Policy Implications - First-tier cities are focused on maintaining stability in the housing market, while lower-tier cities have relaxed purchase restrictions and are employing various incentives to stimulate sales [5][7] - The effectiveness of promotional strategies in lower-tier cities is limited due to a lack of population influx and industrial support, making it difficult to sustain demand [8][12] Investment Recommendations - For buyers in first-tier or strong second-tier cities, it is advisable to consider purchasing now, focusing on existing homes and ensuring that monthly payments do not exceed 30% of income [10][13] - Buyers should prioritize properties in core areas or near subway lines for better risk management and long-term value retention [11][12] - A shift in mindset is recommended, viewing homes primarily as places to live rather than investment vehicles, especially in the context of changing market dynamics [12][14]