铝：旺季预期落空 高库存与弱需求下的震荡行情

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve cautiously lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with internal disagreements on future policy paths, highlighting tensions between fiscal and monetary authorities [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary publicly urged the Federal Reserve to implement significant rate cuts by year-end, indicating a divergence in policy approaches [1] - Domestic liquidity remains loose, with the LPR stable and the central bank injecting over 260 billion yuan, but the real estate sector continues to drag down the economy and aluminum consumption [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market Dynamics - Recent aluminum prices show a divergence, with LME aluminum prices increasing by $73/ton (2.80%) while domestic Shanghai aluminum prices decreased by 65 yuan/ton (0.32%) [2] - The aluminum market is experiencing structural demand differentiation, with weak demand in construction profiles but slight recovery in cables and plates, leading to inventory accumulation despite the traditional peak season [3][7] - The domestic alumina market is characterized by oversupply and price pressure, with spot prices down 205 yuan/ton to 3020 yuan/ton, and futures prices down 140 yuan/ton to 2868 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Real Estate and Consumption Trends - Real estate development investment in China decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, with residential investment down 11.9%, indicating a significant slowdown in the sector [5] - New housing sales area fell by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down 7.3%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market [5] - The real estate development climate index stands at 93.05, indicating a contraction in the sector's health [5] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts reflects a balance between acknowledging labor market weaknesses and inflation risks, while China's macroeconomic policy remains accommodative [6] - The aluminum market is expected to continue its volatile trend, with upward price potential constrained by oversupply and macroeconomic pressures, while seasonal demand and policy stimuli may provide some support [7] - Market participants are advised to focus on inventory trends and actual consumption levels, with a recommendation for cautious trading strategies to manage risks [7]