Gold Sector - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical tensions, including the potential transfer of U.S. military capabilities to Ukraine, are increasing market risk aversion, which may support gold prices [1] - As of the end of September, China's central bank's gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces (approximately 2,303.523 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 40,000 ounces and continuing a trend of 11 consecutive months of gold accumulation [1] - In the first three quarters of this year, gold ETF inflows reached $64 billion, with $26 billion in the third quarter alone, and a record inflow of $17.3 billion in September [1] - Short-term expectations of a correction in gold prices may arise due to internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts, although the long-term outlook remains bullish [1] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish engulfing pattern, suggesting potential further declines in gold prices, with a key resistance level at $4,005 [1] Oil Sector - The overall sentiment in the oil market is pessimistic, with the potential escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict being a significant bullish factor for oil prices [2] - However, the risk of oversupply remains high, as OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, gradually unwinding a previous reduction agreement [2] - The end of the U.S. demand season and weaker economic data suggest that demand recovery may not meet expectations, increasing the likelihood of oversupply in the fourth quarter and into 2026 [2] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with resistance at $62.78 and support at $60 [2] U.S. Dollar Index - There are differing views among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate cuts, which may dampen market optimism for significant rate reductions and negatively impact the dollar [3][4] - Recent changes in Japan's government have led to a depreciation of the yen, which has somewhat supported the dollar index, although further upside for the dollar may be limited [4] - Technical analysis shows a bullish trend for the dollar index, with a key support level at 99 [4] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been consolidating at high levels, with a potential downward correction on the horizon [5] - The index remains above the 20-day moving average, indicating that the overall bullish trend is still intact [5] - Key support level to watch is at 47,200 [5] Copper Sector - Recent trading in copper has shown strength, with the potential for further upward movement [6] - The market is currently in a phase of oscillating upward movement, supported by bullish indicators [6] - Key support level to monitor is at $4.98 [6] Market Overview - The U.S. Treasury has announced sanctions against over 50 entities related to Iranian oil [7] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has confirmed a $20 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina [7] - The Federal Reserve's recent comments indicate a continued moderate tightening of policy following the September rate cut, with expectations for more rate cuts as part of risk management [7] Upcoming Data/Events - Key upcoming economic indicators include the U.S. October inflation expectations and the Michigan consumer sentiment index [8]
百利好晚盘分析：美元强势反弹 金价迎来回调
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-10 10:09