IC Markets：法国政局动荡 欧元兑美元为何仍能反弹至1.155上方？

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has rebounded to around 1.1575 amid ongoing political uncertainty in France, which may pressure the Euro, while U.S. economic and political factors provide some support for the exchange rate [3]. Group 1: Euro Performance - The Euro/USD pair ended a four-day decline, rising to approximately 1.1575 during the Asian trading session [3]. - Political instability in France, particularly the resignation of Prime Minister Le Cornu after just 27 days, has weakened market confidence in the Euro [3]. Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its tenth day, with the Senate rejecting multiple funding bills aimed at ending the impasse [3]. - The shutdown has delayed the release of official economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3]. - Concerns are growing that a prolonged shutdown could diminish the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar, potentially providing upward momentum for the Euro [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently anticipates a 95% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in the October meeting, indicating a continuation of the easing cycle [4]. - This expectation of further rate cuts is likely to weaken the support for the U.S. dollar [4].