Ge Long Hui·2025-10-10 11:13Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of approximately 11.55% in the current quarter, driven by cross-selling from flash sales and improvements in advertising efficiency due to AI [1][2] - Adjusted EBITA is projected to decline by 72.58% to 12.211 billion yuan, primarily due to losses from flash sales, which are estimated at around 35 billion yuan [1][2] E-commerce Group - Revenue growth for the e-commerce group is anticipated to be around 11.55%, with CMR growth at approximately 10.04%, continuing to outpace GMV growth [2] - The adjusted EBITA is expected to decrease by 72.58% to 12.211 billion yuan, largely impacted by flash sales investments [2] - Flash sales are projected to focus on increasing order volume in Q3 and reducing losses while expanding in-store business in Q4 [2] - The synergy from flash sales is expected to positively impact traditional e-commerce operations, potentially serving as an alternative for brand advertising [2] Cloud Intelligence Group - Revenue growth for the cloud intelligence group is expected to be around 30%, with an adjusted EBITA margin of approximately 9%, remaining stable year-on-year [3] - The company is actively advancing a 380 billion yuan AI infrastructure project and plans to increase investments to prepare for the ASI era [3] - By 2032, the energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is projected to increase tenfold compared to 2022, indicating a significant rise in computing power investments [3] - Collaborations with mobile manufacturers like Honor and Apple are anticipated to create new traffic entry points for the company's ecosystem [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue growth for FY2026 and FY2027 is projected at 3.30% and 11.11%, respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits expected to be 121.73 billion yuan and 162.61 billion yuan [4] - The estimated valuation for the e-commerce group and cloud intelligence group per ADS is 145.67 USD and 71.04 USD, respectively, with a target price of 216.72 USD per ADS [4]