成长退潮，风格切换还是倒车接人？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong markets are under pressure, exhibiting a structural characteristic of "growth retreat and cyclical defense" with significant declines in technology and new energy sectors, while cyclical sectors show resilience [1] Market Performance - A-share indices experienced a "strong Shanghai, weak Shenzhen" divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3897.03 points, down 0.94%, and the Shenzhen Component Index dropping 2.7% [2] - The ChiNext Index fell 4.55%, and the STAR 50 Index plummeted 5.61%, marking the second-largest single-day decline of the year [2] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index closed at 26290.32 points, down 1.73%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 3.27% to 6259.75 points [2] - There was a significant net outflow of funds, with a single-day net outflow of 929.6 billion yuan in A-shares, primarily from the technology growth sector [2] Industry Highlights and Driving Logic - The cyclical sectors in A-shares demonstrated strong defensive characteristics, with the building materials sector leading gains due to policy support and expectations of increased infrastructure construction in Q4 [3] - Coal, oil, and petrochemical sectors benefited from price fluctuations and stable profitability, showing upward movement [3] - In the Hong Kong market, beverage stocks surged due to peak customer traffic during the holiday season and expectations of consumption recovery [3] Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - The technology growth sector faced collective sell-offs, with significant declines in sub-sectors like photolithography machines and lithium batteries, driven by supply chain concerns from export controls and high valuation pressures [4] - The precious metals sector experienced a high-level correction, influenced by a decrease in geopolitical risk aversion, although the long-term upward logic remains intact due to the anticipated easing cycle of the Federal Reserve [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The current market is at a critical juncture of "Q3 report verification + policy preheating," suggesting a focus on industry trends and policy benefits for Q4 opportunities [5] - Long-term investments in the technology growth sector should be based on fundamental industry logic, particularly in the AI supply chain and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - Cyclical and resource sectors should leverage "policy + supply-demand" dual driving opportunities, with precious metals providing a configuration window amid global central bank easing [5] - Focus on opportunities driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan," particularly in new productivity and technology innovation sectors, while monitoring consumer demand recovery [5]