财经观察｜白银价格创新高！暴涨逼近历史高位后回调，工业与金融属性交织下风险隐现

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached historical highs due to a surge in safe-haven demand and tightening supply in the London spot market [1][11]. Price Movements - On October 9, COMEX December silver futures peaked at $49.965, nearing the 1980 record of $50.35, before dropping to $46.89, a 4.3% decline [3]. - Spot silver prices exceeded $51 in early trading, marking a 4.8% increase, but later nearly erased these gains [3]. Year-to-Date Performance - Year-to-date, silver has risen over 67%, the largest increase for this period since 1979, outperforming gold's approximately 54% rise [5]. Underlying Factors for Price Increase - Two main factors support the rise in silver prices: its financial attributes as a precious metal benefiting from Federal Reserve rate cuts, and its industrial applications, particularly in electronics, photovoltaics, and new energy sectors [6]. - Industrial demand is projected to account for 58% of silver's downstream demand in 2024, with photovoltaics alone representing 17% [6]. Investment Risks - Silver carries higher investment risks compared to gold due to its smaller market size, which can lead to significant price volatility with minimal capital [7]. - The volatility index for silver ETFs has surged, indicating potential for adjustments in the silver market [10]. Future Price Outlook - Analysts suggest that for silver prices to continue rising, demand from low-value end products must not be adversely affected, while high-tech sectors like AI and photovoltaics must see growth [10]. - HSBC's chief analyst forecasts silver prices could reach $53 per ounce this year and $55 next year, but a correction may occur in the latter half of next year [10]. Dollar Influence on Silver Prices - The global pricing and trading of silver, like gold, is conducted in dollars, making it significantly influenced by dollar fluctuations, especially given silver's smaller market size compared to gold [10].