STARTRADER星迈：美联储理事强调审慎降息，警告关税或推高通胀

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr emphasizes the need for caution in adjusting monetary policy, highlighting the potential lasting impact of tariffs on inflation [1][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Barr advocates for a prudent approach to policy adjustments, suggesting that patience is necessary to gather more economic data and refine risk assessments [3] - In September, the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut of the year, lowering the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, a decision Barr supports [3] - The Fed officials anticipate two more rate cuts within the year, reflecting ongoing challenges in balancing employment and inflation risks [3] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Barr points out that while tariffs have had a lower-than-expected direct impact on inflation, their potential effects should not be overlooked [3] - He explains that as companies adjust pricing strategies in response to rising costs, there may be upward pressure on prices in the future [3] - Barr notes that tariffs, as a one-time cost shock, theoretically should not lead to sustained inflation increases, but ongoing price adjustments could alter inflation expectations [3] Group 3: Labor Market Assessment - Barr expresses cautious optimism regarding the labor market, indicating that the recent slowdown in job growth is complex and not solely due to weakened demand [4] - He analyzes the supply-demand balance in the labor market, suggesting it remains "roughly balanced" despite fluctuations in employment [4] - Barr's remarks reflect the Federal Reserve's multifaceted considerations in achieving a balance among economic growth, employment stability, and inflation control [4]