宋清辉：上海楼市全面实现“止跌回稳”，大概率出现在明年上半年

Core Insights - The Shanghai new housing market is expected to perform better in October compared to the same period last year, driven by favorable policies, seasonal sales peaks, and structural market dynamics, with new home transaction prices remaining stable [1][9] - The recent "8.25 housing policy" has positively impacted the market, leading to a significant increase in new home transactions during the National Day holiday, with a total of 988 units sold, representing a 72% increase year-on-year [3][5] - The market sentiment has improved, with developers actively launching new projects to boost sales, particularly in the outer ring areas where there is a notable price discrepancy between new and second-hand homes [5][6] Market Performance - During the first six days of the National Day holiday, new home sales in Shanghai reached 988 units, an increase of 412 units compared to the previous year [3] - The supply of new homes increased by 70.75% week-on-week before the holiday, with 27.81 million square meters of new projects entering the market [5] - The majority of new projects launched during the holiday were located in the outer ring areas, indicating a shift in buyer interest towards these regions [6][9] Future Outlook - Economists predict that the Shanghai housing market will stabilize and recover by the first half of next year, with new home sales expected to maintain a "steady upward trend" [1][9] - The second-hand housing market is currently in a mild adjustment phase, but there may be marginal improvements in transaction volumes due to price reductions on urgent sales [1][9] - The overall market confidence is bolstered by the recent policy effects, which have laid a solid foundation for future recovery in the housing market [9]