墨西哥强势推出的50%关税，为何突然暂停？中国有动作！

Core Viewpoint - Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum's proposal for a 50% tariff on imports, particularly targeting non-free trade partner countries like China, has been put on hold following a trade barrier investigation initiated by China [1][15]. Tariff Plan: Shift in Trade Policy - The tariff reform proposal announced on September 10, 2025, is part of Mexico's "Plan Mexico" industrial policy, affecting 1,371 tariff codes, which represent 16.8% of all tariff codes in Mexico, with rates ranging from 10% to 50% [3][5]. - The proposal includes a significant increase in tariffs on various products, including automobiles, textiles, and steel, with the automotive sector facing the highest impact [4][6]. Impact on Industries - The automotive industry, particularly Chinese imports, is expected to be severely affected, with tariffs on cars imported from China rising from 20% to 50%, which could undermine price competitiveness [8][20]. - The proposed tariffs cover approximately $52 billion worth of imports, accounting for 8.6% of Mexico's total imports [8]. Underlying Motivations - The tariff increase is influenced by pressure from the United States, especially following Trump's return to the White House, which aims to limit Chinese goods entering the U.S. market through Mexico [9][10]. - Internally, Mexico faces a significant fiscal deficit, projected at 5.9% of GDP in 2024, prompting the government to seek immediate revenue through tariff increases [13][14]. China's Response - In response to Mexico's tariff proposal, China initiated a trade barrier investigation on September 25, which is expected to last six to nine months, highlighting the potential negative impact on Mexico's business environment and international investment confidence [15][16]. Political Dynamics - The Mexican Congress has decided to "pause" the tariff proposal, with plans to revisit it in late November, indicating a need for further deliberation and potential adjustments to the proposal [21][22]. - The current version of the tariff proposal is unlikely to gain congressional approval without modifications, suggesting a possible reduction in tariff rates or the scope of affected products [22].