美国政府“关门”危机陷入持久战，影响有多大？

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to last over 15 days due to a political stalemate between the Democratic and Republican parties regarding temporary funding bills [1] - President Trump plans to cut federal programs favored by Democrats, indicating a potential for permanent layoffs if the deadlock continues [1][3] - Historical context shows that government shutdowns have occurred over 20 times since the 1970s, often due to partisan disagreements [1][3] Political Dynamics - The ongoing impasse reflects increasing political polarization in the U.S., driven by value conflicts, power struggles, and institutional flaws [2] - The core issue revolves around the Democratic demand to extend subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, while Republicans seek to cut border security spending [2][3] - Achieving the necessary 60 votes for any temporary funding bill in the Senate is challenging given the current partisan divide [2] Economic Implications - Prolonged shutdowns could lead to job losses for federal workers and disruptions in public services, negatively impacting consumer spending and short-term economic growth [6] - The Labor Department's suspension of key economic data releases could create an "information vacuum," complicating monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve [6][7] - Historical data suggests that government shutdowns have a limited impact on GDP, primarily affecting public sector income and policy uncertainty [7][8] Market Reactions - The stock market's response to shutdowns has been mixed, with the S&P 500 historically showing resilience during such periods [8][9] - Government shutdowns typically lead to a mild decline in Treasury yields, with a notable drop in short-term rates [8] - The dollar may experience short-term strength due to safe-haven demand, but long-term pressures from fiscal challenges and Fed easing expectations could suppress its value [9] Asset Performance - Gold prices have shown volatility during shutdowns, with historical patterns indicating potential support for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [8][9] - Different asset classes are reacting variably, with tech stocks likely to benefit from rate cut expectations, while cyclical and utility stocks may face declines [9]