一周热榜精选：黄金狂飙后回调，中东和平点燃全球风险开关？

Market Overview - The US dollar index has continued to strengthen, breaking the 99 mark and reaching a two-month high, supported by political uncertainty and safe-haven demand [1] - Gold prices have surged, reaching nearly 4060 USD/ounce, driven by interest rate cut expectations and safe-haven sentiment [1] - Oil prices have experienced volatility, initially rising but then declining due to increased inventory and easing geopolitical tensions [1] - US stock market showed mixed performance, with technology stocks initially leading but later facing profit-taking and increased risk aversion [1] Investment Bank Insights - Citigroup raised its three-month gold price forecast from 3800 USD/ounce to 4000 USD [4] - Goldman Sachs increased its December 2026 gold price forecast from 4300 USD/ounce to 4900 USD, citing strong ETF inflows and central bank purchases [4] - Morgan Stanley projected gold prices could reach around 4200 USD, with a potential high of 6000 USD by the end of 2029, based on fundamental support factors [4] Major Events - The US government has been in a shutdown for over a week due to a stalemate between parties, affecting approximately 2 million government employees and causing economic disruptions [5] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is hindered by delayed employment and inflation data due to the government shutdown, impacting the release of critical economic reports [6] - A ceasefire agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas, marking a significant step towards peace in the Middle East [7] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed significant internal divisions regarding the interest rate cut path, with some officials advocating for further cuts while others expressed caution [8][9] Trade and Tariff Developments - The US Department of Commerce announced export controls on rare earth materials and related technologies, effective November 8, 2025, to maintain national security [11] - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on medium and heavy trucks starting November 1, 2025, while also deciding against tariffs on foreign generic drugs [12] - The World Trade Organization significantly downgraded its global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 from 1.8% to 0.5%, citing weak economic recovery and US tariff policies as contributing factors [20]