Can Novo Nordisk's Aggressive Deal-Making Offset Semaglutide Reliance?

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk's revenue heavily relies on semaglutide therapies, Wegovy and Ozempic, which generated DKK 101.41 billion in H1 2025, accounting for approximately 65% of total sales. The company has faced challenges due to increased competition from Eli Lilly's tirzepatide-based drugs and compounded semaglutide usage in the U.S. [1][3] - To counteract competitive pressures, Novo Nordisk is actively pursuing acquisitions and licensing agreements to diversify its pipeline in obesity and cardiometabolic diseases [2][6] Acquisition Strategy - Novo Nordisk plans to acquire Akero Therapeutics for $4.7 billion, with an additional contingent payment of $6 per share based on U.S. regulatory approval of Akero's lead candidate, efruxifermin (EFX). EFX is a late-stage FGF21 analog showing significant fibrosis regression in a Phase II study for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) [3][4][9] - The acquisition is expected to close around the end of the year and aligns with Novo Nordisk's strategy to expand into metabolic conditions related to its diabetes and obesity franchises, as over 80% of MASH patients are overweight or obese [4][6] Recent Deals and Partnerships - In May 2025, Novo Nordisk signed a $2.2 billion deal with Septerna for developing oral small-molecule medicines targeting obesity, diabetes, and other cardiometabolic diseases [5] - In March 2025, the company entered a global licensing agreement worth up to $2 billion with The United Laboratories for UBT251, a first-in-class GLP-1/GIP/glucagon triple agonist in early development for obesity and T2D [5] - Novo Nordisk also expanded its partnership with Valo Health to discover and develop up to 20 new drug programs in cardiometabolic therapies, valued at up to $4.6 billion in milestone payments [5] Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly has emerged as a strong competitor in the diabetes and obesity market, with its drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound generating combined sales of $14.7 billion in H1 2025, representing 52% of Eli Lilly's total revenues [7] - Other companies, such as Viking Therapeutics, are also advancing in the development of GLP-1-based candidates, with their dual GIPR/GLP-1 RA, VK2735, undergoing clinical trials [8] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Novo Nordisk shares have declined by 31.7%, underperforming the industry growth of 7.8% [10] - The company's shares are trading at a price/earnings ratio of 14.62, lower than the industry average of 15.88, and significantly below its five-year mean of 29.25 [12] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have decreased from $3.89 to $3.68 per share over the past 60 days, with 2026 estimates also declining from $4.24 to $4.04 [17]