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年内涨约50% 金价为何一路高歌?
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-10 16:34

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged significantly, breaking through key thresholds of $3000 and $4000 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 51%, potentially marking 2025 as the year with the highest price increase since 1979 [1][2]. Price Trends - After an 8-day market closure during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, gold trading resumed on October 9, with prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange reaching 911.5 yuan per gram and the Shanghai Futures Exchange at 914.3 yuan per gram, both up over 4.5% from September 30 [1]. - Domestic gold prices have also risen, with brands like Chow Tai Fook reporting a price of approximately 1168 yuan per gram, an increase of 45 yuan since the end of September [1][2]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - Multiple factors are contributing to the rise in gold prices, including geopolitical changes, global economic uncertainty, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased gold purchases by central banks [3]. - The recent U.S. government shutdown has heightened concerns over dollar credibility and U.S. sovereign debt, further driving up gold prices [3]. Central Bank Activity - The World Gold Council reports that central banks have shown a tendency to buy gold on dips over the past three years, indicating sustained interest in gold despite high prices [4]. - Major Asian central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next 3 to 6 years [4]. Investment Behavior - There is a noticeable divergence in gold consumption, with jewelry sales weakening while investment in gold bars is strong, reflecting a market driven by investment rather than consumption [5]. - The market has seen a higher proportion of out-of-town customers during the holiday period, primarily seeking to allocate assets [6]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while there is medium to long-term support for gold prices, the rapid short-term increases may exceed expectations, indicating potential volatility in the market [7]. - Gold is viewed as a long-term asset allocation tool rather than a short-term speculative investment, emphasizing the need for investors to understand the risks associated with different gold investment products [7].