Goldman Sachs' Jon Marshall breaks down top tactical trades for earnings season

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has released its quarterly list of top 25 tactical trades for the earnings season, highlighting both upside and downside names, with Broadcom, Disney, Celsius, and Win as top picks, while MAS and Super Micro are identified as downside risks [1] - The list has outperformed the S&P 500 by 3% annually over the past 13 years, indicating a strong track record in identifying profitable trades [1] Company Highlights - Broadcom is noted for its potential upside, particularly due to its custom compute AI chips, with analyst Jim Schneider projecting earnings visibility above consensus for the next year [3] - Disney's direct-to-consumer business and parks are performing well, with expectations for near-term earnings beats and consensus increases over the next year [8] - Win Resorts is highlighted for its resurgence in volumes in Macau, driven by a loyalty program, and an upcoming UAE investor day is expected to attract attention [11] - City is identified as a top pick in the financial sector, with expectations for fee growth and business simplification to resonate positively with investors [12] Market Trends - The earnings day moves for S&P 500 stocks have shown the highest volatility since 2009, reflecting significant fundamental volatility in the market [4] - There is a notable increase in options activity, particularly in single stocks like Tesla, which accounts for 27% of all single stock options volumes, and zero-day options on the S&P now represent 63% of all index option volume [6][7] - The current market environment is characterized by high dispersion and volatility, influenced by themes such as AI and government policy, which are benefiting some companies while posing challenges for others [5]