Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global merchandise trade growth forecast for this year from 0.9% in August to 2.4% [1] - The growth rate for service exports is projected to be 4.4% in 2024 and 4.6% in 2025, both lower than the 6.8% expected for 2024 [1] - The forecast for 2026 has been downgraded from 1.8% to 0.5% [1] Trade Dynamics - The report attributes the unexpected strength in merchandise trade in the first half of the year to increased procurement related to artificial intelligence, early imports by the U.S. due to tariff concerns, and robust trade from developing countries [1] - A significant 42% of global trade growth is driven by AI-related products, which is notably higher than their 15% share in global trade [1] - In the first half of 2025, South-South trade is expected to grow by 8%, surpassing the global trade growth rate of 6% [1] Risks to Trade Outlook - The main downside risks to the global trade outlook include the spread of trade restrictions and policy uncertainties affecting more economies and sectors [1]
世界贸易组织预测2025年全球贸易增长2.4%
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan·2025-10-10 18:02