金价创新高背后的危险信号：量化基金已准备好应对暴跌

Core Insights - The value of gold as a diversification tool has gained attention as it surpassed the $4000 per ounce milestone, driven by factors such as dollar depreciation, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of interest rate cuts [1][2] - Christopher Cruden, a fund manager, warns that investors buying gold to reduce portfolio risk may face unpleasant surprises, citing historical price declines after previous peaks [1] - The Kintore fund employs a dynamic hedging strategy that allows for profits from both rising and falling gold prices, although it may struggle during periods of price stagnation [2] Market Dynamics - Current gold price surges may not be sustainable, as investors weigh high valuations against AI-driven stock market enthusiasm, with gold maintaining demand as a low-correlation asset class [2] - The correlation between gold and other asset classes may increase, potentially diminishing its attractiveness to investors [2] - Central banks are projected to purchase over 1000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, doubling the average pace of the previous decade, with China emerging as the largest buyer [2][3] Investment Strategies - Gold's zero default risk, high liquidity, and neutral status in reserve assets make it attractive for official asset portfolios, especially after the vulnerabilities of the dollar-centric reserve system were exposed by sanctions against Russia [3] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, recommends allocating approximately 15% of assets to gold, emphasizing its performance during downturns in other asset classes [3]