重大，人民币结算国际铁矿，美元石油翻版？这场国运战中国赢了

Core Viewpoint - BHP, Australia's largest iron ore giant, faces a critical business threat as China halts all US dollar-denominated iron ore purchases, impacting over 100 billion AUD in annual revenue [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - China demands that any resumption of iron ore trade must be conducted in RMB, marking a significant shift in trade practices [3]. - The iron ore trade has been dominated by the Platts index and US dollar settlements, positioning China as a "price taker" despite being the largest buyer [6]. - The establishment of China Mineral Resources Group in 2022 has unified procurement efforts among Chinese steel companies, enhancing negotiating power [6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Alternatives - China is diversifying its supply sources, with companies like Vale in Brazil already accepting RMB for iron ore purchases [8]. - New mining projects, such as the Simandou mine in Guinea, are set to produce significant quantities of iron ore, further reducing reliance on Australian imports [8]. - The proportion of iron ore imported from Australia by China has decreased by 12 percentage points in the first eight months of 2025 [8]. Group 3: Pricing Mechanisms - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore futures, priced in RMB, have a trading volume over 20 times that of the Singapore market, establishing a new pricing benchmark [9]. - The "Beijing Iron Ore Index," based on actual transaction data, is emerging as a competitor to the Platts index [9]. Group 4: Currency Settlement Implications - The suspension of purchases in September 2025 represents China's first public stance in this pricing power struggle, putting BHP's reliance on the Chinese market at risk [11]. - The shift to RMB settlements allows Chinese companies to avoid exchange rate risks and save billions in currency conversion costs [13]. - The trend of RMB settlements is growing, with 45% of Sino-Russian iron ore trade and 28% of Vale's transactions with China now conducted in RMB [15]. Group 5: Broader Economic Impact - The increasing use of RMB in commodity trading is challenging the dominance of the US dollar, providing a replicable model for de-dollarization in various sectors [15]. - The share of RMB settlements in global metal trade has risen from 2.1% in 2020 to 9.2% by the third quarter of 2025, indicating a rapid acceleration of this trend [15].