假如发生通货膨胀，持有什么东西才最稳当？答案并不是房子和黄金

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of inflation on personal finance and evaluates traditional assets like real estate and gold as hedges against inflation, suggesting that they may not be the best options in the current economic environment [1][3][4]. Real Estate - Real estate has historically been viewed as a hedge against inflation, but recent data shows that national housing prices increased only by 1.2% in 2024 and experienced a slight decline of 0.3% in the first half of 2025, indicating that real estate has not kept pace with inflation [3]. - Key considerations for purchasing real estate include high down payment requirements (typically 30-40%), poor liquidity, high holding costs (property tax, maintenance fees), and significant regional disparities in property performance [3]. Gold - Gold is traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset during inflationary periods, with prices rising by 8.5% in 2024. However, it has also experienced significant volatility, including a two-year period of stagnation or decline from 2020 to 2022 [4]. - Challenges of holding physical gold include storage security, liquidity issues, and the absence of cash flow, unlike stocks or rental income from real estate [4][5]. Alternative Assets - Personal skills and capabilities are highlighted as valuable assets during inflation, with professionals in high-demand fields (e.g., AI, data analysis) seeing salary increases of 15-55%, significantly outpacing CPI growth [7]. - High-quality stocks are identified as effective inflation hedges, with blue-chip stocks in the A-share market yielding an average annual return of approximately 9.7% over the past 30 years, surpassing inflation rates [7][8]. - Inflation-linked bonds and similar financial products are designed to hedge against inflation, with average yields of 3.2% in the first half of 2025, slightly above CPI [8]. - Essential consumer goods, such as food and household items, have seen price increases (3.5% for food and 2.8% for daily necessities in 2024), making pre-purchase a practical strategy to lock in current prices [10]. Strategies for Different Demographics - Recommendations for asset allocation vary by age group: - Young adults (25-40 years) should focus on personal development and allocate 60-70% to equities, 20-30% to fixed income, and 10% to cash [11]. - Middle-aged individuals (40-55 years) should maintain skill relevance and adjust to 40-50% equities, 40-50% fixed income, and 15% cash [11]. - Near-retirement individuals should prioritize capital preservation with 20-30% equities, 50-60% fixed income, and 20% cash [11]. Practical Tips - Practical strategies to combat inflation include enhancing consumer awareness, developing passive income streams, and maintaining a savings habit to provide a buffer against inflationary pressures [12][13].