美论坛：如果贸易战和关税不能阻止中国崛起，美国该怎么做？

Group 1: Trade War Background and Impact - The US-China trade war began in 2018 due to the Trump administration's belief that China was taking advantage of the US, leading to tariffs on steel and aluminum, which later expanded to electronics and machinery [1][3] - The trade war resulted in supply chain disruptions for US companies, increased costs, and higher prices for consumers, contributing to rising inflation and job losses, particularly in manufacturing [3][5] - By 2020, the pandemic prompted a phase one agreement where China agreed to purchase more US agricultural products, but the execution faced challenges, and tariffs remained in place under the Biden administration [5][7] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The trade war slowed US economic growth to 2.8%, while China maintained a growth rate of around 5%, indicating a decline in US competitiveness [9][11] - Although the trade deficit narrowed slightly, US companies shifted towards automation or relocating factories, which is not a sustainable long-term solution [9][11] - The trade war has proven to be a double-edged sword, as it has not only failed to suppress China's economic rise but has also led to increased domestic prices in the US [9][18] Group 3: China's Resilience and Growth - China's economic development is seen as inevitable, with a large domestic market and a focus on self-reliance, which has accelerated technological innovation despite the trade war [11][12] - The "Made in China 2025" initiative aims to enhance China's high-tech manufacturing capabilities, allowing it to redirect exports to other markets despite US tariffs [14][15] - China's industrial production accounts for nearly half of global output, and its trade surplus is significant, indicating its central role in the global supply chain [21][31] Group 4: Recommendations for the US - The US needs to shift its approach towards China, focusing on self-improvement and coexistence rather than suppression, including investing in STEM education and infrastructure [20][25] - Ending the trade war and fostering cooperation could lead to mutual benefits, as the US economy is intertwined with China's, and competition should replace isolation [27][29] - Experts suggest that the US should adopt a more favorable view of China, emphasizing collaboration over confrontation to achieve a balanced global economy [31]