2025 Is Looking a Lot Like 2020 for NIO Stock: Can It Ride the Wave to $10?

Core Viewpoint - Nio has experienced a significant turnaround in 2025, moving from a four-year streak of losses to a year-to-date gain of over 70%, with a remarkable 130% increase over the last six months, driven by strong operational performance [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Deliveries - In August and September, Nio delivered over 30,000 vehicles each month, achieving record-high shipments, primarily due to strong sales of its L90 SUV [3]. - The company launched its luxury third-generation ES8 SUV, contributing to the increase in deliveries [3]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - Nio's gross margin improved to 10% in Q2 2025, up from 9.7% in Q2 2024, with a gross profit of $264.9 million, representing a 12.4% increase from the previous year and more than double the profit from Q1 2025 [4]. - The adjusted loss per share for Q2 2025 was $0.32, slightly higher than consensus estimates, although net losses have narrowed [4]. Group 3: Future Guidance - Nio forecasts deliveries to reach 150,000 in Q4 2025, compared to 72,056 in Q2 and 87,071 in Q3 [5]. - The company expects vehicle gross margins to rise to between 16% and 17% in Q4, up from 10.3% in Q2, and aims to achieve breakeven on adjusted profits in the same quarter [5].