“供应不足”并非是房价飙升的唯一原因

Core Insights - The rapid increase in Australian housing prices over the past 16 years has outpaced rental growth, particularly in areas with insufficient new housing supply, indicating that the reasons for rising prices are more complex than mere supply constraints [1][3] - The Australian federal government aims to build 1.2 million new homes by 2029 to address the long-term housing supply shortage and rising prices, but experts suggest that simply increasing supply may not fully resolve housing affordability issues [3][6] Group 1: Housing Market Dynamics - The research by e61 Institute highlights that in Sydney, the gap between rental and housing price growth is the largest, suggesting that high housing prices are not solely driven by demand exceeding supply [3][6] - In Melbourne's suburbs, rental growth is also lower than housing price growth, but this trend does not hold true in the city center, indicating varying dynamics based on location [6] - The expectation of future returns from property investment plays a significant role in driving housing prices, as Australians often view housing as a means of wealth accumulation [6][8] Group 2: Policy Implications - Increasing loan costs or making loans harder to obtain is not seen as a viable solution for improving housing affordability; instead, reforming the real estate tax system is suggested as a more effective approach [8] - The low tax rates on housing profits may not align with Australia's long-term interests, raising questions about the sustainability of wealth accumulation through rising property values [8][10] - The chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies notes that while housing prices and rents have both outpaced inflation, the primary driver for the faster increase in housing prices is the decline in mortgage rates [10]