美联储放水预期推动价格大涨，黄金仍然是风险资产

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices, which surpassed $4,000, is attributed to several factors, including debt crises, currency risks, and inflation expectations, while also highlighting the relationship between gold and U.S. equities [2][3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Increase - The U.S. is facing a significant debt crisis, with 2024 fiscal spending projected to exceed revenue by 40%, necessitating bond issuance to cover the deficit [2]. - Concerns over currency risks have emerged, particularly regarding the potential restructuring of the Federal Reserve under political pressure, which could threaten the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [3]. - Inflation expectations are being questioned, as many developed economies are moving away from prolonged inflation post-pandemic, challenging the traditional view of gold as an inflation hedge [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Central banks globally have been net buyers of gold for 15 consecutive years, with a reported net purchase of 166 tons in Q2 2025, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [4][5]. - As of October 2025, global official gold reserves reached $4.64 trillion, a 52.9% increase from the end of 2024, with gold now surpassing U.S. Treasury securities as the largest reserve asset [4][5]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which peaked at $8.9 trillion in June 2022, has been reduced to approximately $6.6 trillion, yet remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, contributing to ongoing market dynamics [5]. - The recent surge in gold prices is largely driven by financial investments, particularly through gold ETFs, which saw a record net inflow of $26 billion in Q3 2025 [5][6]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - Despite gold not generating yield, the psychological expectation of continued price increases has led to increased investment in gold as a speculative asset [7].