程强：走势分化，均衡配置

Market Overview - The A-share market, government bond futures, and commodity markets experienced widespread adjustments on October 10, 2025 [1] Market Analysis Stock Market - The stock market showed significant adjustment, with major indices declining; the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94% to 3897.03 points, losing the 3900-point threshold; the Sci-Tech 50 index dropped by 5.61%, and the ChiNext index fell by 4.55% [2] - Defensive sectors outperformed, with the Dividend Index rising by 1.14% and the Micro Index increasing by 0.62% [2] - The market's style exhibited a shift from growth to defensive, with a trading volume of 2.53 trillion, slightly down from 2.67 trillion the previous day [3] - The adjustment may be attributed to increased uncertainty from external factors, including recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce and Customs regarding export controls on superhard materials, rare earths, and lithium batteries, raising concerns about trade friction [2][3] - The Bank of England's warning about overvaluation in AI-related tech companies may have also contributed to negative sentiment in the tech sector [2] Bond Market - The bond market saw adjustments, with the 30-year bond futures (TL2512) down by 0.49%, and the 10-year (T2512), 5-year (TF2512), and 2-year (TS2512) bonds down by 0.06%, 0.09%, and 0.05% respectively [5] - The funding environment remained stable, with the central bank conducting a 409 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, offsetting 600 billion yuan in maturing funds, resulting in a net withdrawal of 191 billion yuan [5] - The market is expected to continue a trend of oscillating recovery, with a focus on liquidity easing and policy expectations [6] Commodity Market - The commodity futures market showed a "more declines than gains" pattern, with non-ferrous metals experiencing a pullback after initial gains; notable increases included rebar (3.01%), red dates (2.29%), and coke (1.86%) [7] - The price of live pigs continued to decline, dropping by 3.21%, attributed to a sharp drop in consumer demand post-holiday and high inventory levels in the egg market [8] - The recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza may have reduced the safe-haven demand for gold, contributing to a price drop, although long-term trends may still support precious metals due to ongoing Fed rate cuts [7] Trading Hotspots Recent Popular Products - Key products include AI, nuclear fusion, domestic semiconductor replacements, and robotics, driven by factors such as central bank policies, capital expenditures from tech giants, and industry advancements [11] - The focus for future developments includes monitoring the Fed's rate decisions, geopolitical risks, and domestic technological progress [11] Core Thoughts Summary - The market has shifted from a tech-led rally to a more balanced allocation strategy, with both tech and dividend sectors showing potential [12] - The bond market is expected to see slight recovery, with long-term bonds presenting attractive value [12] - In commodities, precious metals and non-ferrous metals are anticipated to benefit from global liquidity, while industrial products may experience volatility due to policy changes [12]